USDA’s Economic Research Service released its latest fruit and tree nuts outlook on Sept. 24, 2026, and the report paints a mixed picture for growers this season. Apples, wine grapes, peaches, pears and table olives are all forecast to shrink compared with last year. However, cranberries, table grapes, hazelnuts and citrus are expected to post gains. The report, authored by ERS economists Catharine Weber, Helen Wakefield, Skyler Simnitt and Seth Wechsler, also shows fresh fruit prices climbing for consumers this year.
Apple Crop Shrinks After Spring Freeze Damage
USDA forecasts the 2026 U.S. apple crop at 10.4 billion pounds, a 6% drop from last year. That would mark the smallest harvest since 2022. A damaging spring freeze hit the mid-Atlantic hardest, cutting Pennsylvania’s crop by 58% and Virginia’s by 48%.
Meanwhile, West Coast growers avoided the worst of the damage. Washington, the nation’s top apple-producing state, expects a crop just 2% below last year but still 6% above its five-year average. Because Washington supplies roughly three-quarters of the nation’s fresh apples, its relatively steady output should help cushion the overall supply shock. As a result, analysts expect both fresh and processing apple prices to rise in the 2026-27 marketing year, and higher transportation costs will add further pressure.
Grapes, Pears and Peaches Face Lower Volumes
Total U.S. grape production is expected to fall 1.3% in 2026, with declines forecast in every surveyed state. Wine-type grapes account for much of that drop, particularly in California and Washington, where acreage has shrunk for several consecutive seasons. Table-type grapes buck the trend, though, with California’s crop expected to climb 10% thanks to an early, strong harvest.
Pears face a steeper decline. USDA projects a 15% drop in the West Coast pear crop, the third-lowest total since 1972. Peaches are following a similar path: overall production is forecast down 15%, driven by freeze damage in Georgia and the mid-Atlantic. South Carolina stands out as an exception, with its largest peach crop in more than a decade after avoiding major freeze events.
Cranberries, Kiwifruit and Table Olives Move in Different Directions
Not every crop is shrinking. Cranberry production is expected to rise 5% in 2026, reaching 7.87 million barrels, with growth reported in Wisconsin, New Jersey and Oregon. Kiwifruit imports are hitting record highs as well, and USDA expects U.S. per-person kiwifruit availability to top one pound for the first time this year, even as California’s own kiwifruit harvest dips slightly.
Table olives tell a different story. California’s table olive forecast falls 23% to 34,000 tons, continuing a two-decade decline tied to shrinking bearing acreage. Consequently, growers have shifted much of that acreage toward olive oil production instead.
Walnuts and Hazelnuts Offer Bright Spots for Tree Nut Growers
California’s walnut harvest got underway in September with cautiously optimistic conditions. Favorable chill hours, ample soil moisture and mild summer temperatures suggest yields near the 10-year average, which would put production around 750,000 tons. That said, USDA still awaits its official October yield report before locking in a final number.
Hazelnuts are having a standout year. Oregon set a hazelnut production record in 2025, and preliminary data suggest 2026 will break that record again, reaching roughly 143,720 tons. Grower prices for hazelnuts hit their highest level in nearly a decade last year, partly because freeze damage in Turkey — the world’s largest hazelnut producer — pushed buyers toward U.S. supply.
Citrus Production Climbs Across the Board
Citrus growers had a notably strong 2025-26 season. Total U.S. citrus production reached 5.3 million tons, up 6.5% from the prior year, with gains in oranges, grapefruit and tangerines. Only lemon production slipped, and even that dip left volumes above the five-year average.
California continues to reshape the nation’s orange juice supply chain. For the first time since frozen concentrated orange juice was invented, California is projected to lead U.S. orange juice production this season, edging out Florida as citrus greening continues to limit Florida’s output.
What This Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook Means for Growers
This fruit and tree nuts outlook underscores how weather swings, from spring freezes to shifting chill hours, continue to shape harvests state by state. Farmers and ranchers watching apple, peach and pear supplies should expect firmer prices heading into the 2026-27 marketing year. Meanwhile, growers in cranberries, hazelnuts and citrus have reason for cautious optimism as demand and prices trend upward.
Readers should watch USDA’s upcoming October walnut yield report and the quarterly citrus forecasts for further updates on how this season plays out. You can find the full analysis in USDA’s Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report. This story is based on a press release from the USDA Economic Research Service.